Closing knowledge gaps on Earth system science in support of global and regional assessments and climate policy

Expected Outcome

Project results are expected to contribute to some of the following expected outcomes:

• Improved quality and reduced uncertainty of global and regional climate change projections;
• Critical knowledge and data gaps in Earth system science as identified in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and other authoritative sources, are addressed, ensuring that future climate assessments are grounded in the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific evidence;
• New climate science evidence is generated that is relevant for policy needs and for informing climate action.

Scope

The global community’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change requires the continuous advancement of climate science and related disciplines. International climate policy is informed primarily by the assessments made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which provides the most comprehensive and authoritative evaluation of the state of knowledge on climate science, including the Earth’s climate system and its expected changes under different scenarios. Despite the exponential increase of available data, other evidence and knowledge accumulated on these issues, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of key issues and processes. These may include factors such as insufficient or divergent evidence, low confidence findings or high uncertainties. Some of these gaps are identified in AR6 (specifically, in Working Group I contribution), “The Next Frontier for Climate Change Science”[1] and other relevant sources. Moreover, science has progressed since the closing of the evidence base used for AR6, raising new questions and avenues for inquiry.

Proposals under this topic should seek to narrow the knowledge gaps in the realm of Earth system science (understood here as the scope of Working Group I of the IPCC), offering flexibility for applicants to define the specific research areas targeted. Proposals are expected to focus on issues clearly within the scope of Cluster 5, Destination 1, and not prominently addressed by other topics of the 2025 and 2026-2027 Work Programmes, encouraging new scientific insights and approaches, and the involvement of researchers and entities new to Horizon Europe. Successful proposals are expected to enhance the scientific foundations and inform scientific assessments in a way that ensures they are comprehensive, accurate, and relevant for decision-makers.

Proposals should clearly identify the knowledge gap(s) they seek to address, substantiate why recent and ongoing research efforts are unlikely to sufficiently address the issue, explain how the proposed action is expected to contribute to the advancement of Earth system science and identify policy relevance of the research proposed.

International cooperation in the context of IPCC, WCRP[2] and GCOS[3] is strongly encouraged where relevant.

Proposals indicating use of satellite remote sensing data and derived products are encouraged to collaborate with projects selected under ESA’s FutureEO programme and the EC-ESA Earth System Science Initiative (ESSI) to facilitate access to and uptake of satellite data products and related tools or methodologies. They should dedicate resources for collaborative actions.

[1] The next frontier for climate change science - Publications Office of the EU

[2] https://www.wcrp-climate.org/

[3] https://gcos.wmo.int/site/global-climate-observing-system-gcos